From letters to cell phones, From dung to fusion reactors
Leapfrogging is the jump from one emerging market to another, essentially skipping the stepping stones most developed nations took to get to that emergent technology; the best example is cell phones in developing, although, as we will learn, there are many others. The trend of leapfrogging has become increasingly popular in some areas of Southeast Asia and Africa, where limited resources and relaxed regulatory policy allowed for emergent technologies to flourish, and thus, many of these nations firmly embrace the integration of leapfrog technology and innovations (Ramanathan, 2023).
“Leapfrogging occurs when a nation bypasses traditional stages of development to either jump directly to the latest technologies (stage-skipping) or explore an alternative path of technological development involving emerging technologies with new benefits and new opportunities (path-creating)” (Yayboke et al., 2020).
As described by Yayboke, Leapfrogging is a phenomenon where a nation accelerates its development by skipping traditional stages and adopting the most recent technologies. This process, known as stage-skipping, allows countries to modernize rapidly. Alternatively, a nation might forge a unique path of technological advancement, termed path-creating. This involves exploring and adopting emerging technologies, which can offer new benefits and opportunities, potentially leading to innovative and unanticipated forms of development. This approach can enable a country to leap ahead in its growth trajectory, bypassing conventional steps that may have been time-consuming or resource-intensive.
Mobile Communications
Developing nations can make more enormous leaps than developed nations because of the model of successive progress made by developed nations. Let us help underdeveloped nations skip fossil fuels by using fossil fuels to create nuclear energy in the developed nations. We have seen this in many developing nations; cell phones are one of the most outstanding examples. The product allows these nations “the benefits of a reliable and extensive communication network without the heavy investment in fixed-line phone infrastructure” (Rodgers et al., 2009).
The statistic that “By the end of 2006, 68 percent of the world’s cell phone subscriptions were in developing countries” (Rodgers et al., 2009) is a testament to the rapid spread of mobile technology in the 21st century. Several factors drove this trend.
Firstly, the cost of mobile devices significantly decreased during this period, making them more accessible to individuals in developing countries. Secondly, mobile networks require less infrastructure than traditional landlines, allowing telecom companies to establish networks in remote and rural areas more efficiently.
Moreover, the advent of prepaid plans enabled people with irregular incomes to access mobile services. This democratization of technology had profound social and economic impacts. It facilitated communication, provided access to information, and opened up new opportunities for commerce and entrepreneurship. “The International Telecommunication Union says 72 percent of Afghanistan’s population is now covered by a cell phone signal” (Rodgers et al., 2009). This is in contrast to the less than 1% using fixed telephone lines due to the leapfrog effect of mobile phones.
However, this trend also highlighted the digital divide between urban and rural areas within these countries and between different socio-economic groups. Despite these challenges, the proliferation of mobile technology in developing countries represents a significant step towards global digital inclusion.
The Need for Infrastructure
It is clear that even with leapfrog technologies like cell phones, this will not be enough to allow these countries to experience sustained economic growth. For that to happen, they need the rest of the ingredients, including reliable infrastructure for electricity, plumbing, and roadways.
Yayboke, Crumpler, and Carter preach an excellent point: Leapfrog activity must evolve with policies that translate opportunities from the activity into sustainable growth, not simply a jump for nothing. If the technology is the leap, the next leap pad is the set-in-place policies.
“Leapfrogging should be viewed for what it is: an enabler of sustainable development rather than a solution to all development challenges in emerging economies” (Yayboke et al., 2020).
Leapfrogging is a term used to describe the process in which developing nations bypass traditional stages of development and adopt advanced technologies directly. While this approach can yield significant benefits in terms of economic growth, it also poses several challenges that must be addressed. One of the key concerns associated with leapfrogging is the risk of neglecting critical investments in infrastructure, research and development, and human capital.
Developing nations must, therefore, be vigilant in pursuing long-term solutions that integrate vertical and horizontal emergent technologies to ensure stability and sustained growth. This requires a careful balancing of short-term gains with long-term investments in critical areas such as education, healthcare, and sustainable development. It is important to note that while technology can act as a replacement for other technologies, it cannot substitute for social capital and public trust, which are critical components of sustainable development and progress.
Therefore, developing nations must prioritize investments in these areas to ensure that they are able to achieve their development goals in a sustainable and equitable manner.
Mopeds, Security Cameras, Digital Payments, Drones
Mopeds, along with other motorized two- and three-wheelers such as motorcycles, scooters, and tuk-tuks, have significantly impacted the development of South Asian and African nations. Here’s how:
In Southeast Asia, over 80% of households in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam own motorcycles. In the six largest economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), sales of motorcycles and scooters reached over 13.7 million units in 2019. These vehicles are cheaper to buy and fuel than cars, making them an ideal mode of transport in fast-expanding cities that lack public transit and are beset by congestion. They have become a transport lifeline for millions of commuters across Southeast Asia.
However, the mushrooming number of conventional motorcycles and scooters is driving up energy consumption, air pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions. To combat these problems, countries across South-East Asia, with support from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), are encouraging drivers to trade in gas-guzzlers for electric motorbikes.
The impact of mopeds on African nations is less documented. However, it is essential to note that development trajectories in Asia and Africa have been different. While many East and Southeast Asian nations have experienced robust economic growth, most Sub-Saharan African countries have experienced repeated development failures. The reasons for these differences are complex and multifaceted, involving historical, political, economic, and social factors.
“The lack of legacy infrastructure and entrenched vested interests could allow for the rapid adoption of emerging technologies, especially compared to developed nations that are forced to follow more incremental transition plans” (Yayboke et al., 2020).
This is a considerable advantage since no bad habits were formed for policy. New emergent technologies may be integrated into society's economics from the start, creating more encouraging growth. The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) is a great example when concerning digital payments systems; because of their relaxed regulatory policies surrounding the activity, they were able to rapidly implement and develop the technology throughout their economy, which is why there is 80% participatory rate as compared to the United States mere 20%.
“Rwanda has also been a pioneer in adopting drone technology, most famously through partnering with California-based drone startup Zipline to deliver blood to remote villages” (Yayboke et al., 2020).
According to McKinsey, "Some of the fastest growth in digital payments occurred in Africa and Southeast Asia, where low banking penetration gives payments providers opportunities to capture untapped potential and reach underserved populations."
What’s Next?
“In 2018, Hun Sen, the prime minister of Cambodia, stated that the technologies of the fourth industrial revolution would “allow less-developed countries to leapfrog traditional industry into modern industry.”” (Yayboke et al., 2020). I believe this is coming to fruition through the present advancements in energy technology being made in developed nations. Technology such as hydrogen storage, fusion energy, and superconducting cables may come to fruition just in time for developing nations to adopt and leapfrog again.
Solar panels are the most recent integration in these developing nations, providing renewable energy generation sources on many buildings and creating a more resilient electricity grid from the get-go. Grid infrastructure in places like Kenya is spawning microgrids left and right, building their electricity infrastructure in reverse of developed nations like the United States, where we are currently doing our best to increase grid resiliency by building microgrids ourselves.
In some regions of Africa, such as Kenya, the practice of converting animal and human waste into biogas is already prevalent. This process, often referred to as “poo power,” involves collecting waste and placing it in a digester, which then emits methane that can be used for cooking or to power hot showers. This innovative approach to energy generation is a testament to these communities’ resourcefulness and commitment to sustainable practices.
On the other hand, fusion energy, a process where two lighter atomic nuclei combine to form a heavier nucleus while releasing energy, is being pursued as a potential game-changer in the global energy landscape. Recent advancements in fusion technology, such as the hydrogen-boron reactor developed by Australian company HB11, have shown promising results. This technology uses lasers to trigger a fusion reaction between hydrogen and boron, creating a potential source of clean, safe, and virtually limitless energy.
The leap from biogas to fusion energy is significant, given the technological complexity and resources required for fusion energy generation. However, the principle of transforming available resources into energy remains the same. As fusion technology becomes more accessible and cost-effective, it is conceivable that nations currently utilizing biogas could one day adopt fusion energy generators, leapfrogging over traditional energy infrastructures. This transition would represent a remarkable evolution in their energy landscape, underscoring the potential for innovative solutions in the face of resource constraints.
Conclusion
Leapfrogging technology has advantages and disadvantages; it is vital to progress responsibly. Understanding that emergent technology takes the place of obsolete technology but not of policy, advancements stimulate the economy but do not always provide stabilization.
A realistic optimism and regulatory flexibility balance is critical in successful societal leapfrog integration. It is also true that a form of infrastructure must not be ignored. Progressing more and more in technology while ignoring the necessary infrastructure of the natural world may cause more harm than good and cause backpedaling. Electricity and Internet access are vital ways for the government to formalize the economy more rapidly and enforce regulations.
References
Ramanathan, Srikumar. “Council Post: The Role of Leapfrog Innovation in Emerging Markets.” Forbes, 31 May 2023, www.forbes.com/sites/forbestechcouncil/2023/05/31/the-role-of-leapfrog-innovation-in-emerging-markets/?sh=5f6afce12167. Accessed 14 Jan. 2024.
Rodgers, Bill, et al. “Cell Phones Allow Countries to “Leapfrog” Technology.” Voice of America, 1 Nov. 2009, www.voanews.com/a/a-13-2008-05-19-voa22/401756.html. Accessed 14 Jan. 2024.
Yayboke, E., Crumpler, W., A. Carter, W. “The Need for a Leapfrog Strategy.” Www.csis.org, 10 Apr. 2020, www.csis.org/analysis/need-leapfrog-strategy.